Despite the fact that most people know me as a "walking film encyclopedia", my performance in the annual Oscar pool is usually spectacularly wretched (I'm apparently the only person who didn't think the Academy would award Best Picture to a fantasy epic, so I went with "Mystic River" over "Return Of The King"--oops!). That's because predicting award winners has nothing to do with how well you know your Coen Bros. from your Mast & Cohen, but how well you can predict what the 82-year-retired-caterer from "Vertigo" will feel about last year's film crop…and Harvey Weinstein’s gift basket.I've studied the various guild winners, and have decided to skip EW's predictions in the minor categories entirely, since they tend to get most areas like "Best Live Action Short Subject" wrong anyway...
Since my cynical, defeated workplace has skipped the event, this year's Oscar pool will be a competition between just me and my significant other LF. So here are my predictions:
____________
BEST PICTURE:
"No Country For Old Men": It's brilliant and everyone in Hollywood seems to love it, even though I predict about a third of them actually "get" it. That being said--
POSSIBLE UPSET:
"Atonement" is the sort of Eurocentric period melodrama that would be literary-types excessively fawn over to show how much they’re above superhero films and sequels. It's still a challenging film, though, in terms of structure, and is pretty damned dark. It’s far better than most of its type, but I wouldn't put it on the list.
BEST DIRECTOR:
The Coens (No Country For Old Men): these guys are long overdue, and this is one of their finest efforts in a solid career.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Little chance of that, but it’s possible that PT Anderson could be a dark horse for a versatile career and the genius of his “There Will Be Blood”.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody (Juno): Writers tend to vote for cooler films overall and this quirky, quotable gem seems to be on everyone's lips. Comedies, however, tend to be undervalued in ALL categories, and this "little film that could" might now be considered "too popular", so--
POSSIBLE UPSET: Hmm, I’m thinking Michael Claytons expert balance of thriller and drama could score it for Gilroy, or the charms of the truly wonderful “Ratatouille” will be too tough to resist…
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Coens (No Country For Old Men): a difficult novel more faithfully translated to the screen than I expected when reading it. With that--
POSSIBLE UPSET:
--maybe the Academy will feel the Coens adapted very little and just shot the book page-by-page, and instead give it to Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood”, since the film scores little chance of winning anything else other than Best Actor.
BEST ACTOR:
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Willl Be Blood): it’s been a long time since he won for “My Left Foot” and this one’s a powerhouse. Some feel it’s a bit hammy and strange, though, so—
POSSIBLE UPSET:
George Clooney (Michael Clayton): a less “showy” role and thus more conventional turn for the oldsters, but an equally fine performance that’s full of minor touches whereas Lewis’ is all about acting for “the back row”…but I’d give it to Depp.
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie was great in “Away From Her” and is a respected vet long-overdue for some kudos, but I’ve been surprised here before. If nostalgia doesn’t win out—
POSSIBLE UPSET
--then it could go to Cotillard as Piaf in “La Vie En Rose”, ‘cause Hollywood loves dem musical biopics!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
A toughie, with uniformly stellar work here. But with all the acclaim for “No Country For Old Men”, it’s Bardem’s for sure.
POSSIBLY UPSET
Hardly—but Philip Seymour Hoffman is memorable in everything he does and “Charlie Wilson’s War” is a bit less indie and weird than most of his other efforts.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton as the stone cold PR flack in “Michael Clayton” should be the only choice here.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Warm nostalgic fuzzies could give it to Ruby Dee for her five-minute role in “American Gangster”. There’s buzz for Blanchett as Bob Dylan in “I’m Not There”, but her performance might be dismissed as a straight, albeit gender-bending, impersonation.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Well, everyone knows the year’s best score was Johnny Greenwood’s for “There Will Be Blood”, but it wasn’t eligible for stupid reasons. And “No Country For Old Men” doesn’t have one—at all. I remember liking the ambient score for “Michael Clayton”, so I’ll stick with it.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Who knows? I didn’t see “The Kite Runner”…maybe it’s better…
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I haven’t a friggin’ clue. I liked the songs in “Once”, and haven’t heard any of the ones from “Enchanted”. But there are THREE of them for consideration here, so I’ll split the difference, take the one in the middle, and choose “So Close”.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
One of the other two songs from “Enchanted” I didn’t choose…
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Ratatouille” might be Pixar’s best film to date, and that’s saying a lot...
POSSIBLE UPSET
“Persepolis” is pretty damned impressive, too…
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Y’know, I see enough foreign films in a year, despite my low-brow tastes, but none of the ones I thought were any good got nominated. In fact, I’ve seen none of the five nominees. But I hear good stuff about “The Counterfeiters”, so I’ll go with that one.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Pick one: “Mongol”. Whatever.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Popular docs used to be shut out, but that’s changed for the better. Still, I don’t see it going to Moore again for “Sicko”—Bush is on his way out, so there’s not much to say. While Iraq-themed features failed to register, the doc “No End In Sight” might take the prize.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Okay, so maybe a lot of people wanna hear what Moore might say after all (Sicko).
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
No idea, much like every other year. Sari’s Mother sounds sentimental, and sentiment always works.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Salim Baba. Moving on…
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“The Mozart Of Pickpockets” is a cool title. A little classical music, a little Bresson. Yeah, this is the one.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Take yer pick. Il Supplente…just because…
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Canada offers two promising candidates. I’ll go with the boomer-friendly “I Met The Walrus”.
POSSIBLE UPSET
The other Canadian animated short: Madam Tutli-Putli.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins’ sun-baked landscapes (and faces) from “No Country For Old Men” should guarantee the win.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
“There Will Be Blood” is chock full o’ equally haunting imagery…
BEST ART DIRECTION
Fantasy never gets it, so it’ll go to the period fetishes of “Atonement”.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Well, “Lord Of The Rings” actually did get one, so maybe “Sweeney Todd”? (which should)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Remember when “Star Wars” LOST this to “Annie”-frickin’- “Hall”? Forget fantasy—it’ll go to either “Atonement” Or “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”. There are more extras in “Elizabeth”, thus more costumes, so it’ll win.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Everyone’s talking about Kiera’s green dress in “Atonement”, so there you go.
MAKEUP
Since my cynical, defeated workplace has skipped the event, this year's Oscar pool will be a competition between just me and my significant other LF. So here are my predictions:
____________
BEST PICTURE:
"No Country For Old Men": It's brilliant and everyone in Hollywood seems to love it, even though I predict about a third of them actually "get" it. That being said--
POSSIBLE UPSET:
"Atonement" is the sort of Eurocentric period melodrama that would be literary-types excessively fawn over to show how much they’re above superhero films and sequels. It's still a challenging film, though, in terms of structure, and is pretty damned dark. It’s far better than most of its type, but I wouldn't put it on the list.
BEST DIRECTOR:
The Coens (No Country For Old Men): these guys are long overdue, and this is one of their finest efforts in a solid career.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Little chance of that, but it’s possible that PT Anderson could be a dark horse for a versatile career and the genius of his “There Will Be Blood”.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody (Juno): Writers tend to vote for cooler films overall and this quirky, quotable gem seems to be on everyone's lips. Comedies, however, tend to be undervalued in ALL categories, and this "little film that could" might now be considered "too popular", so--
POSSIBLE UPSET: Hmm, I’m thinking Michael Claytons expert balance of thriller and drama could score it for Gilroy, or the charms of the truly wonderful “Ratatouille” will be too tough to resist…
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Coens (No Country For Old Men): a difficult novel more faithfully translated to the screen than I expected when reading it. With that--
POSSIBLE UPSET:
--maybe the Academy will feel the Coens adapted very little and just shot the book page-by-page, and instead give it to Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood”, since the film scores little chance of winning anything else other than Best Actor.
BEST ACTOR:
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Willl Be Blood): it’s been a long time since he won for “My Left Foot” and this one’s a powerhouse. Some feel it’s a bit hammy and strange, though, so—
POSSIBLE UPSET:
George Clooney (Michael Clayton): a less “showy” role and thus more conventional turn for the oldsters, but an equally fine performance that’s full of minor touches whereas Lewis’ is all about acting for “the back row”…but I’d give it to Depp.
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie was great in “Away From Her” and is a respected vet long-overdue for some kudos, but I’ve been surprised here before. If nostalgia doesn’t win out—
POSSIBLE UPSET
--then it could go to Cotillard as Piaf in “La Vie En Rose”, ‘cause Hollywood loves dem musical biopics!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
A toughie, with uniformly stellar work here. But with all the acclaim for “No Country For Old Men”, it’s Bardem’s for sure.
POSSIBLY UPSET
Hardly—but Philip Seymour Hoffman is memorable in everything he does and “Charlie Wilson’s War” is a bit less indie and weird than most of his other efforts.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton as the stone cold PR flack in “Michael Clayton” should be the only choice here.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Warm nostalgic fuzzies could give it to Ruby Dee for her five-minute role in “American Gangster”. There’s buzz for Blanchett as Bob Dylan in “I’m Not There”, but her performance might be dismissed as a straight, albeit gender-bending, impersonation.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Well, everyone knows the year’s best score was Johnny Greenwood’s for “There Will Be Blood”, but it wasn’t eligible for stupid reasons. And “No Country For Old Men” doesn’t have one—at all. I remember liking the ambient score for “Michael Clayton”, so I’ll stick with it.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Who knows? I didn’t see “The Kite Runner”…maybe it’s better…
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I haven’t a friggin’ clue. I liked the songs in “Once”, and haven’t heard any of the ones from “Enchanted”. But there are THREE of them for consideration here, so I’ll split the difference, take the one in the middle, and choose “So Close”.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
One of the other two songs from “Enchanted” I didn’t choose…
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Ratatouille” might be Pixar’s best film to date, and that’s saying a lot...
POSSIBLE UPSET
“Persepolis” is pretty damned impressive, too…
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Y’know, I see enough foreign films in a year, despite my low-brow tastes, but none of the ones I thought were any good got nominated. In fact, I’ve seen none of the five nominees. But I hear good stuff about “The Counterfeiters”, so I’ll go with that one.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Pick one: “Mongol”. Whatever.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Popular docs used to be shut out, but that’s changed for the better. Still, I don’t see it going to Moore again for “Sicko”—Bush is on his way out, so there’s not much to say. While Iraq-themed features failed to register, the doc “No End In Sight” might take the prize.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Okay, so maybe a lot of people wanna hear what Moore might say after all (Sicko).
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
No idea, much like every other year. Sari’s Mother sounds sentimental, and sentiment always works.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Salim Baba. Moving on…
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“The Mozart Of Pickpockets” is a cool title. A little classical music, a little Bresson. Yeah, this is the one.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Take yer pick. Il Supplente…just because…
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Canada offers two promising candidates. I’ll go with the boomer-friendly “I Met The Walrus”.
POSSIBLE UPSET
The other Canadian animated short: Madam Tutli-Putli.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins’ sun-baked landscapes (and faces) from “No Country For Old Men” should guarantee the win.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
“There Will Be Blood” is chock full o’ equally haunting imagery…
BEST ART DIRECTION
Fantasy never gets it, so it’ll go to the period fetishes of “Atonement”.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Well, “Lord Of The Rings” actually did get one, so maybe “Sweeney Todd”? (which should)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Remember when “Star Wars” LOST this to “Annie”-frickin’- “Hall”? Forget fantasy—it’ll go to either “Atonement” Or “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”. There are more extras in “Elizabeth”, thus more costumes, so it’ll win.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Everyone’s talking about Kiera’s green dress in “Atonement”, so there you go.
MAKEUP
Didn’t this use to be “makeup effects”? No? Oh well—Rick Baker is a genius and should win for anything he does—unfortunately, he’s nominated for Eddie Murphy’s “Norbit” which everyone hates. So it’ll go to Depp’s eyeliner, Keef’s spackle, and all those fish people from “Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’s End”.
POSSIBLE UPSET
What’s up other than “Norbit”? “La Vie En Rose”? Okay, then that one…
What’s up other than “Norbit”? “La Vie En Rose”? Okay, then that one…
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
I thought “Grindhouse” , “Sunshine”, and “I Am Legend” had better FX than any of the nominees, but what the hell. Optimus Prime and co. were impressive in “Transformers”” (I just wanna hear someone on stage announce “Transformers!!!”)
POSSIBLE UPSET
Who cares. Maybe those wily “Pirates”, with Keef and the Kraken?
BEST EDITING
The “No Country For Old Men” semi-sweep should assure a win here.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Action films, which embody the art of film editing like no other genre, never win, but maybe, this year the Academy will clue in and give it to the deserving “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
BEST SOUND MIXING
I went to film school for four years and have worked on features for nearly 20, and still have no idea what the difference is between the two sound categories (sound must be recorded, edited, AND mixed, doesn’t it? Why not a best film processing category to go with cinematography?). I’ll give it to “No Country For Old Men”, which relies entirely on natural sounds with no background music to convey dramatic mood.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
In case “No Country”s achievement is a bit too subtle, maybe it’ll go to the noisier “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Action films, again, excel here. Which is why it should go to “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Must’ve been tough to record all that clanging metal for “Transformers”, but everything in the animated world of “Ratatouille” had to be created from scratch.
I thought “Grindhouse” , “Sunshine”, and “I Am Legend” had better FX than any of the nominees, but what the hell. Optimus Prime and co. were impressive in “Transformers”” (I just wanna hear someone on stage announce “Transformers!!!”)
POSSIBLE UPSET
Who cares. Maybe those wily “Pirates”, with Keef and the Kraken?
BEST EDITING
The “No Country For Old Men” semi-sweep should assure a win here.
POSSIBLE UPSET
Action films, which embody the art of film editing like no other genre, never win, but maybe, this year the Academy will clue in and give it to the deserving “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
BEST SOUND MIXING
I went to film school for four years and have worked on features for nearly 20, and still have no idea what the difference is between the two sound categories (sound must be recorded, edited, AND mixed, doesn’t it? Why not a best film processing category to go with cinematography?). I’ll give it to “No Country For Old Men”, which relies entirely on natural sounds with no background music to convey dramatic mood.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
In case “No Country”s achievement is a bit too subtle, maybe it’ll go to the noisier “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Action films, again, excel here. Which is why it should go to “The Bourne Ultimatum”.
POSSIBLE UPSET:
Must’ve been tough to record all that clanging metal for “Transformers”, but everything in the animated world of “Ratatouille” had to be created from scratch.
___________
And there you go. Bring on Stewart, bring on the Price-Waterhouse-Coopers guys, bring on the heartbreak!
And there you go. Bring on Stewart, bring on the Price-Waterhouse-Coopers guys, bring on the heartbreak!
